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Schwab Market Perspective: Growing Weary?
By Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab &
Co, Inc. and Brad Sorensen, CFA, Director of Market and Sector
Analysis, Schwab Center for Financial Research
Economic
Progress continues but market action indicates some caution as we look
toward potential developments for the rest of the year.
- Earnings are coming in better than expected, but the market has been more focused on risks; recently experiencing a quick (and overdue) 5% correction.
- Economic
growth continues to be stronger than expected, but the Federal Reserve
is beginning its exit strategy and liquidity measures are being reduced.
- China has been slowly tightening while Europe continues to show sluggishness and deal with the fallout of the Greek debt fiasco.
Schwab's investment philosophy of diversification, having an appropriate asset allocation that matches investors' risk tolerances, and the art and science of re-balancing have been reinforced during the past month.
We've been writing about the increasing likelihood of a correction, either through time or price, after the stellar rally since the March 2009 lows - and we're certainly seeing an increase in volatility.
Trying to catch each move in the equity market, however, is a near-impossible task. Who could have foreseen the stunning election results in Massachusetts, which upended the balance of power in Congress, or the Greek banking crisis - both of which impacted near-term market action?
We remain optimistic regarding the equity markets during the longer term and the economy in the near term, but recognize that increased volatility will likely characterize 2010. Investors should use this opportunity to check their risk tolerances and ensure that their asset allocations are appropriate.
Copyright 2009, CAIM LLC
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